I’m writing this as I’ve just recently made one of the hardest decision in my life. I still don’t know what the outcome is, but I’m starting to see the outcome unveiling before my eyes. I’ll share in a future post about this decision, but for now, I wanted to emphasize the first rule of decision making: ” Never Judge a Decision by its Outcome “
Joe realized he has cancer.
From his diagnosis:
-if he undergo surgery, he has 90% chance of surviving and 10% chance of dying
-if he refuse the surgery, he can live for only a year before the cancer kills him
Considering the expected value of the undergoing a surgery, he chose to do it.
However he died from the operation.
Was that a bad decision ? or a good decision that led to a bad outcome.
a good poker hand that lead to a big lost
a business decision that has plenty of risk in failing
a career change that led to a misery
Distinguish those decisions from its outcome, evaluate them separately, and learn to make better one next time. (Of course, if there’s a next decision to be made, in Joe’s case by the time he realized the good decision and the bad outcome, he might not be able to make another one).
First Published: May 28, 2018

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